Recruits sent to replace battlefield losses on the front lines are reportedly increasingly unmotivated

Ukrainian troops are growing more open to the prospect of territorial concessions and a ceasefire amid flagging morale and mounting pressure from Russian forces, The Economist reported on Sunday, citing sources from Ukraine.

Russian forces are advancing in Donbass at a rate unseen since the earliest days of the conflict, the magazine noted. Earlier in November, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the liberation of more than a dozen settlements in Russia’s Donetsk Region and Ukraine’s Kharkov Region.

The problems faced by the Ukrainian army are exacerbated by its worsening manpower issues, The Economist wrote. “Long out of willing recruits,” the conscription push has met barely two-thirds of its target, the magazine said, citing one Ukrainian official as worried that the situation could become “irretrievable” by springtime. Recruits that are pressed into service are more often than not over the age of 45, unhealthy and unmotivated, The Economist said, citing a Ukrainian officer.

The worsening battlefield situation coupled with these issues, and exacerbated by a lack of rotation, is reportedly taking a toll on morale. Fewer and fewer soldiers are willing to “fight to the end” and are less against the idea of giving up territories, one officer told The Economist.

“It’s not even 50-50 any more, but 30-70.”

In late October, Ukrainian lawmaker Aleksey Goncharenko claimed that Kiev is seeking to conscript an additional 160,000 people in the following three months, amid mounting losses and desertions. Soon afterwards, Ukrainian media reported that more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted or left their positions without leave since the escalation of the conflict in 2022.

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In spring this year, faced with heavy casualties on the battlefield, Ukraine lowered the mobilization age from 27 to 25 and increased the penalties for draft dodgers. In addition, the tightened conscription rules require men to report to the authorities for “data validation,” which often results in them being immediately pressed into service and sent to the front lines.

Videos circulating on social media show recruitment officers trying to catch Ukrainian men in public, often leading to violent confrontations. In October, a Ukrainian MP warned of a legal crackdown on social media against people seeking to aid men in avoiding conscription officers.

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While Moscow has said it is open to peace negotiations, it has stressed that they must account for the “reality on the ground.” As Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out the possibility of giving up the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye regions, as well as Crimea, a peace deal would have to include territorial concessions by Ukraine. All five regions joined Russia after voting in a series of referendums.