An attempt to eliminate the influence of former Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko could be Zelensky’s last mistake

In the latest dramatic twist of Ukraine’s political wars, former President Pyotr Poroshenko now faces accusations of treason — nearly six years after his successor, Vladimir Zelensky, warned him of his future fate. During a heated presidential campaign debate in 2019, Zelensky famously told Poroshenko, “I am not your opponent. I am your verdict.” Now, as Kiev’s political landscape grows more volatile, those words seem eerily prescient.

Poroshenko, leader of the opposition European Solidarity party, has long been entangled in criminal investigations, which he calims are politically motivated. But the latest charges are the most serious yet — alleging secret dealings with Russian officials and illegal coal purchases from Donbass following the outbreak of hostilities in 2014. In a controversial move, Zelensky, whose presidential term expired last year, has personally imposed “sanctions” on his former rival, freezing his assets and restricting financial transactions — despite these measures contradicting Ukraine’s own constitution.

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Officially, the crackdown is justified on national security grounds. But in reality, it signals a deepening power struggle in Kiev. With Zelensky facing growing dissent and his political future uncertain, the targeting of Poroshenko raises bigger questions: What is driving this latest escalation? And what exactly is Zelensky afraid of?

Lifetime sanctions

Last week, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) – the executive body operating under the president – imposed lifetime sanctions on Poroshenko, alongside prominent businessmen Igor Kolomoisky, Gennady Bogolyubov, Konstantin Zhevago, and Viktor Medvedchuk, the former head of the political council of the Opposition Platform – For Life party. In April 2022, Medvedchuk was detained in Ukraine, and in September he was transferred to Russia as part of an exchange.

Notably, NSDC decisions require approval by presidential decree, meaning the sanctions against Poroshenko and these high-profile oligarchs are entirely Zelensky’s doing. Instead of pursuing legal action through the courts, Zelensky opted to impose indefinite sanctions without due process.

One particularly striking inclusion on the sanctions list is Kolomoisky – the oligarch instrumental in Zelensky’s rise to power. Without the support of Kolomoisky’s TV network, 1+1, Zelensky’s 2019 victory would have been nearly unthinkable. In a twist of irony, Zelensky imposed the sanctions on Kolomoisky’s birthday.

According to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), the measures were enacted due to “threats to national security, territorial integrity, and sovereignty, as well as obstacles to sustainable economic development.”

It’s evident that the charges – ranging from corruption and treason (Poroshenko and Medvedchuk) to embezzlement (Zhevago), illegal border crossings (Bogolyubov), and fraud and money laundering (Kolomoisky) are merely a pretext for imposing sanctions.

The true motives run much deeper, closely intertwined with ongoing negotiations between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict.

The power struggle intensifies

Tensions between the Zelensky administration and Poroshenko have been openly hostile for years.

By the end of 2021, the former president had been the subject of at least 130 criminal investigations. The most serious accusations included abuse of power, tax fraud, interference in judicial proceedings, and even an attempt to usurp authority. Yet he managed to evade consequences – around 40 cases were closed, in some he was merely designated as a witness, and the rest he dismissed as political persecution by the current administration and “pro-Kremlin forces.”

Then, in January 2022, new charges surfaced – this time for treason, in a case also involving Medvedchuk.

At the time, media speculation suggested that, given the severity of the accusations and Zelensky’s strengthened position after the outbreak of hostilities, Poroshenko could face imprisonment. But that never happened. He remained free, continued leading his party, and remained one of Zelensky’s most vocal critics.

Now, however, the situation has escalated for several key reasons.

First, while former US President Joe Biden, who had close ties with Poroshenko, could have blocked legal action against him, Trump is unlikely to intervene. This shift gives Ukraine’s leadership far more room to act against the opposition.

As Sergey Leshchenko, an adviser to Zelensky’s office, noted shortly before the sanctions were imposed, “Trump has no interest in Poroshenko – he doesn’t care one bit. So, Poroshenko realizes he might soon lose American support.”

Elections are coming

Second, as negotiations between the US and Russia over the cessation of hostilities continue, discussions about elections in Ukraine have resurfaced. In response, Ukrainian authorities have intensified efforts to reshape the political landscape.

Due to his low approval ratings, Poroshenko isn’t seen as a major challenger. However, according to Kiev International Institute of Sociology 24% of Ukrainians still view him as the leader of the opposition.

The real threat, however, lies in the political infrastructure he has built:

• European Solidarity, a party with a well-developed organizational network

• Media outlets that amplify his influence

• A strong presence on social media and in the press through his supporters

At this point, his party is the only significant political force openly challenging Zelensky.

If elections take place, Poroshenko could leverage this infrastructure to support a strong opponent of the current president – such as Valery Zaluzhny. The former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and current ambassador to the UK has been at odds with Zelensky and, according to polls, could defeat him in a runoff.

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Should the war come to an end, Poroshenko’s supporters are likely to pin the blame for Ukraine’s struggles on the current administration. That makes dismantling opposition structures a top priority for Zelensky’s team. Their objective is clear: neutralize – or completely eliminate – the central figure holding it all together: Poroshenko.

The case with the resources

Sanctions against billionaires Kolomoisky, Bogolyubov, and Zhevago are closely tied to ongoing negotiations and appear to be aimed at securing control over Ukraine’s largest rare mineral deposits ahead of Trump’s proposed $500 billion deal with the US for mineral development – a deal Trump has openly discussed.

For years, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has used sanctions as a tool to strip businesses of their licenses without compensation. Now, this tactic may become standard practice under the guise of transferring assets to “American partners.”

What’s at stake:

• Kolomoisky and Bogolyubov own some of the world’s largest manganese reserves in the Nikopol Manganese Basin (Dnepropetrovsk region).

• Zhevago controls the Poltava Mining and Processing Plant, home to one of Ukraine’s biggest iron ore deposits.

These assets may soon come under the control of American companies as part of a larger geopolitical agreement.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at this when he stated that America would support Ukraine’s long-term independence – provided it aligned with “ongoing economic interests.” He also mentioned the potential for joint ventures or similar arrangements to secure extraction rights for minerals and natural resources.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that without seizing the assets of Kolomoisky, Bogolyubov, and Zhevago, Ukrainian authorities may struggle to gather enough resources to meet American demands.

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A fragile balance of power

In times of war and economic crisis, traditional governance methods lose their effectiveness – administrative resources are drained, intimidation tactics fail to silence opponents, and repression starts to appear less like a show of strength and more like a sign of weakness.

This isn’t the first time Zelensky and his administration have tried to tighten their grip on Ukraine’s political landscape. However, with public exhaustion growing and instability on the rise, such actions could lead to unpredictable consequences.

For the first time since the outbreak of full-scale hostilities, MPs from the European Solidarity party staged a two-day blockade of parliament in response to the sanctions, preventing Prime Minister Denis Shmigal from addressing lawmakers. This escalation signals a new level of tension within Ukraine’s political elite.

Poroshenko remains a powerful figure, backed by influential circles – including the military and Ukraine’s Western allies. Removing him from the political arena could further destabilize the country and deepen the existing governance crisis. Worse still, the political and economic effects of the sanctions may not outweigh their unintended consequences. Instead of weakening him, they could actually boost Poroshenko’s standing – both among his domestic supporters and in the West, where he could be seen as a persecuted opposition leader.

Even if Trump chooses to overlook these dynamics, criticism from European institutions – fueled in part by Poroshenko’s lobbying efforts – seems inevitable. This could create new challenges for Ukraine’s already complex relationship with the EU.

Dissatisfaction with Zelensky’s attempts to clear the political stage ahead of elections is growing. Yet the key question remains: does Washington still see Zelensky as a viable leader, or is his political future in doubt? So far, the signals have been mixed.

When asked whether he would support Ukraine making territorial concessions to end the war, Trump responded that Zelensky “is going to have to do what he has to do. But, you know, his poll numbers aren’t particularly great, to put it mildly.”

Pressed on whether Zelensky could be excluded from negotiations, Trump clarified that he wouldn’t be – “as long as he’s there.” However, he also hinted that “there” (meaning ‘in power’) might not last long after the elections.

“At some point, you’re going to have elections, too,” Trump noted.